Research Hub

Poll: Moreno Leads in AV Simulated Election in Ohio

The Center for Election Science

In the race for the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate in Ohio, incumbent Secretary of State Frank LaRose has taken a commanding lead, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted on behalf of the Center for Election Science. However, with 35% of likely voters still undecided, the contest remains wide open. LaRose currently holds 33% of the vote, ahead of State Senator Matt Dolan, who stands at 18%. Businessman Bernie Moreno follows with 12%, while farmer Joel Mutchler lags with just 1%. Despite LaRose’s significant lead, the high number of undecided voters indicates that the primary outcome is far from settled.

Approval Voting Highlights Voter Preferences

When voters were allowed to select as many candidates as they wished using approval voting, LaRose emerged as the top choice, with 52% of voters selecting him. His approval is particularly strong among those who get their news from podcasts (64%), younger voters aged 18 to 34 (62%), and voters in the Toledo area (61%). Dolan follows with 38% approval, finding his strongest support among independents (52%), voters with 4-year college degrees (48%), and older voters aged 65+ (47%). Dolan also has significant backing from voters who get their news from broadcast TV and from Republican primary voters who supported Joe Biden in 2020.Moreno is chosen by 28% of voters, including 39% of those who get their news from local radio and 36% of those who consistently follow government and political news. Mutchler, despite his low poll numbers, is selected by 6% of voters, including a notable 18% of Biden 2020 voters, 14% of talk radio listeners, and 13% of LGBTQ+ primary voters.

Read the full report here